Syria, the Obama Doctrine, and storms ahead for Israel

Syria, the Obama Doctrine, and storms ahead for Israel
December 14, 2012 by Bruce Wallace, 121Contact

The Obama Doctrine is simple: Wait for a conflict and, if you can see an American advantage, choose a side. Get in rapidly and get out fast to avoid ground war and long occupations.

The United States has no vital interest in Bashar Hafez al Assad's Syria. True, it is a close ally of Iran and the friend of my enemy is my enemy. But that's hardly enough reason to involve the American military.

The State Department has declared Syria a state sponsor of terrorism. While it is true that Syria is funneling Iranian money and arms to the Lebanese Hezbollah, attacking the funnel probably wouldn't stop the Iran-Hezbollah linkage.

Our friends in the region are against Assad's Syria. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan, Qatar, the mostly Sunni Gulf countries all would like to see the Shiite-Alawite regime of Assad fall. This follows the ancient Sunni-Shi'ia divide. This is not so much a religious fracture as a power competition and has been such since the rival clans in Muhammad's tribe, the Quraysh, fought over succession some 1300 years ago.

So if we had no compelling reason to overthrow Assad why are we so concerned now (when it is far too late to intervene directly)? An unstable Syria will lead to an unstable region.

Storms for Israel are on the horizon as the more militant terrorist groups gain hold in Syria. The outcroppings of al Qaeda affiliates and al Qaeda-like militias are already coming to the fore and their numbers have increased significantly. In December 2011 al Nusra comprised about 1% of the opposition fighters; now they are about 10%, and they are gaining quickly even as they add suicide and car bombing to the mix.

Should have, would have, could have...it's too late now to implement the Obama Doctrine. And that's a good thing, given that there was no way on Earth that we could have prevailed without a repeat of the Iraq scenario. And we all know how that turned out. We'll just have to wait and see the outcome and then handle it as best we can.