But let’s not make this personal. Targeted killing is a policy element and can be evaluated rationally.
Let’s look at the target: His loyalty was to Pakistan and he was known to fight against NATO forces in Afghanistan as well as Taliban fighters. He was known to shelter al-Qaeda operatives. At first glance Nazir seems a logical target.
A closer look reveals the error of this decision. We are ostensibly about to remove our forces from the area. President Obama is well on his way to winding down our involvement in Afghanistan. The threat of Nazir against NATO forces then becomes irrelevant, and perhaps is outweighed by the damage this death causes: to relationships between the U.S. and Pakistan, to U.S. credibility, to stability in Pakistan, and to the support it gives to other terrorist organizations.
U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan have repeatedly weakened our relationship with Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf who has denounced the strikes as “harmful” and “ineffective.” He noted that although Washington claims that the targets are militants, “casualty figures clearly indicate that Pakistani civilians are the main victims.” [PressTV] The real effects are noted around the world, further lowering America’s falling credibility.
Nazir was the strongest stabilizing force in the multiple-tribal district of South Waziristan. Nazir’s calming influence in the region he controlled was not insignificant. Warring tribes were forced to maintain non-violent relationships. He successfully quelled the ethnic Uzbek killing spree, but not before more than 200 Waziri elders were killed by members of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU).[BBC-1] Pakistani officials praised Nazier for driving out foreign fighters from Pakistan.
With Nazir’s death comes the specter of the resurgence of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan group (TTP). It also raises the possibility that the IMU will again become a problem for Pervez. The TTP, partners with the Mehsud tribe, have been attacking Pakistani targets since 2007. [BBC-2] This further damages U.S.-Pakistan relations.
And the immediate result highlights the major weakness of these targeted killings. There was no immediate effect.
Nazir was quickly replaced, right after Nazir’s funeral. The Taliban in South Waziristan have named Bahwal Khan, who is also known as Salahuddin Ayubi, to lead the Mullah Nazir Group. [longWarJournal] According to U.S. officials, Ayubi maintains close ties to al-Qaeda, the Afghan Taliban, and a host of terrorist groups operating in the Afghan-Pakistan region, US intelligence officials.
In an amazing show of persistent ignorance of the realities on the ground, the Pentagon said Nazir’s death would be helpful to the United States and its Pakistani partners. [Tribune] Perhaps it is not ignorance. Perhaps it reveals the need to justify U.S. actions, regardless of the reality of their effectiveness. We’ve seen this before as the failed tactics of Vietnam, the COIN program, were transferred to fail again in Iraq, and then, unbelievably, again in Afghanistan. When will we ever learn?
January 4, 2013 by Bruce Wallace, 121Contact
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