With ISIS decimated, having lost the Caliphate Capital (Mosul), its Syrian center (Raqqa), and suffering devastating losses of troops in both countries, there is a room for a new group at the top. There is an old group ready to step up.
Al Qaeda (AQ) has always is ready to resume the title “World’s primary terrorist organization”. AQ has always held the long view of a slow process to victory: disrupt the standing order, maintain a central core from which to generate satellite affiliates across the globe, and never lose sight of the primary target, the U.S. The ISIS fantasy of world dominance proven only by assertion has failed. This means that AQ is again the primary target for international anti-terrorist forces.
The battle against AQ did not end when ISIS gained its fame and power, but it consumed a majority of U.S. forces in the fight. With ISIS rendered tactically weak the focus has shifted. Just recently Omar Khetab, al Qaeda’s No. 2 in the Indian subcontinent, and Mullah Shah Wali, commander of the Taliban’s special forces branch, were killed, along with scores of AQ fighters in Afghanistan.
It is possible that fighters and high-level leaders of ISIS will merge into AQ. ISIS affiliates may shift their allegiance also. Rumor has it that In response to attrition at the top due to American targeted assassinations, Zawahiri is grooming Osama bin Laden’s son Hamza bin Laden for a prominent place in the organization.
Support is still coming from Iran. Research indicates that cooperation between Iran and AQ has roots going back some 20 years. Many of the leadership have sheltered there along with their families. Hamza bin Laden lived in Iran at least long enough to be married there. Money has flowed through Iran to AQ.
Al Qaeda may regain its strength and grow again. It had only hundreds of fighters on 9/11 It has tens of thousands now. AQ has thrived on the instability of nation states, moving in when they are weakest. It grows when U.S. forces leave battlefields. It grows when propaganda opportunities arise, like news from Guantanamo, anti-Muslim actions like Trump’s ‘Muslim ban’, and news of U.S. forces committing perceived crimes against innocent Muslim populations. Trump’s recent declaration of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital will only add to AQ’s perceived legitimacy.
Whether or not Al Qaeda becomes a major threat to the U.S. is not yet known. It lacks a leader with the charisma of Osama bin Laden. Its affiliates were fragmented by ISIS. U.S. anti-terrorist campaigns have become more technical and more effective. But its persistence is undeniable. There is a foundational ideology that still appeals to hundreds of thousands of supporters and that remains something to be reckoned with.
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