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Planning War over Dinner, with friends.

The image of those people sitting around a dinner discussing, deciding upon a raid in Yemen has me thinkin’ about a smoky basement with us hovered over 8 by 8 feet of plywood; greened, landscaped, and heavy on the edges with Napoleonic Era figures in battle formations. It was the eve of a great battle to see who would command the river-cut valley below, and the once insignificant town near the center. This war could be said to hinge on this action.

[RoboWar kills civilians more easily now, as any escalation of technology will tend to do, as one side gains the temporary advantage (Until The Other matches it and the race is on again). It helps to keep the definition of Morality fluid.]

At the dinner: Trump, CIA Director, Natl. Security Advisor Mike Flynn, secretary of defense and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, trump’s son-in-law, I think…

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 “U.S. military officials told Reuters that Trump approved his first covert counterterrorism operation without sufficient intelligence, ground support, or adequate backup preparations. As a result, three officials said, the attacking SEAL team found itself dropping onto a reinforced Al Qaeda base defended by landmines, snipers, and a larger than expected contingent of heavily armed Islamist extremists.” http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/02/u-s-military-sources-criticize-trump-approved-yemen-strike.html

The White House said it was a success. It was actually a bloody mess. Perhaps they were acting on stale intelligence. Whatever!

This insistence that power/violence is the answer has persisted longer than it needs to. We have evolved to the point at which we are now able to see many paths; that the non-violent paths lead to more peaceful tomorrows. There is a cost, of course.

There’s always a cost, and this change will be very expensive, probably more expensive in dollars than the current path. Enormous amounts of cash... What’s different about compassionate non-violent solutions is that the people who pay most of the cost for progress are different from the people who usually pay for technological-competition-political solutions. There’s enough cash out there to get this done. This one falls on the super-rich. Oh, my.

The lasting peace cannot come until we are all treated compassionately, justly, equally.  #Resist

February 2, 2017 Bruce Wallace 121Contact

U.S. Systemic Racism in Brooklyn Banking

Affects not just the distribution of mortgages but other types of lending and investment,

In 1937, for example, a summary of the Eastern Parkway area of Brooklyn noted its favorable influences—“near Prospect Park, “substantial row brick construction,” “close in,” “good transportation facilities”—and one detrimental influence: “slow infiltration of negroes from the section to the north,” meaning the Bedford-Stuyvesant neighborhood. Eastern Parkway was at that point about 2 percent black. It was colored yellow, for “definitely declining.”

http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2016/10/21/a_new_project_shows_how_redlining_emerged_from_firsthand_reports_of_the.html

The Silence of the Lambs: #Trump, #Flint

Where is the Church? Where are the Republicans? Blatant racist speech, thinly disguised calls to violence, open misogyny, and obvious untruths explode from Trump’s mouth in a shower of venom, but religious and political leaders act as if they don’t hear. They seem not to fear the fascist path of Trumpism.

Warnings of infrastructure failure have been unheeded for years but our leaders ignored them until forced to react by the poisoning of a large city. Flint is not alone, although the other poisoned cities are much smaller. We have money for war (some $115 million a day for Iraq/Syria) but little cash for keeping our citizens safe.

Every Republican leader should be speaking loudly against Trumpism and its poisonous rhetoric. Every house of worship should be ringing with condemnation of Trump and all that he stands for. What could possibly be keeping our leaders silent?

ISIS Oil: It’s the economy, stupid.

James Carville knew a thing or two when he advised Clinton’s campaign on the takedown of George H. W. Bush. Finally, the anti-ISIS forces are getting the message. It’s hard to rule when you don’t have cash, and ISIS profits are way down in Iraq. Syrian operations are obviously the next target.

About half of ISIS income used to be from oil. That’s a lot in one basket, and the U.S. coalition has put a large hole in it. The damage is severe enough so that ISIS doesn’t even have enough fuel for its internal needs, and little for export. High quality fuel needed for water delivery is no longer available in many areas. Everything from water to medicine has become more expensive, and power is no longer a given in ISIS controlled territory. [iraqoilreport]

Life in the Caliphate is beginning to suck. Not that this is producing a mass exodus of civilians from ISIS controlled areas. Roads are dangerous for 'deserters' and Iraqi forces aren't welcoming, to say the least. Mosul has become a horror show in the past few month as ISIS becomes more brutal as its losses and weaknesses become more apparent. Over the last two months, hundreds of people have been executed, whipped and some 90 alleged thieves have had a hand chopped off. [aranews]

In Syria those living under the Caliphate are no better off. ISIS is beefing up its borders around Raqqa not so much for defense as for keeping people from fleeing. There is little water, no electricity, and no jobs in this capital of the Caliphate. The people are being registered and passports are confiscated. Daily air strikes, from both government and coalition forces, have leveled much of the city and created a prolonged traumatic environment. [bbc]

The Emperor is not yet naked, but it's getting harder to disguise the rotting flesh of the Caliphate.

 

 

Iraq: Where did the money go?

Baghdad is under water as failure to repair infrastructure gives birth to high risk of disease, crushed small economies, and chaotic disruption. The yearly budget spent runs between US$600-700 BILLION dollars.

Some are getting quite rich as the people continue to suffer. Corruption runs deep, and cash flows to cronies who are accumulating the vote-getting power of the purse.  Abadi's words are strong, but he faces an entrenched base who are loath to see a successful cleanup.

Maliki, who built much of the network of cash flow to friends and political allies, retains power in the Dawa party and is capable of neutralizing Abadi's best efforts.

So, the people will continue to suffer until they gain control, and that ain't gonna be easy.

 

Belmoktar Fulfills a 2006 al-Qaeda Fatwa in Algerian Attack (probably by accident)

 Whatever Moktar Belmoktar wanted from his attack on BP’s Amenas natural gas field is overshadowed by the larger result. He has fulfilled a 2006 al-Qaeda fatwa titled, “The Laws of Targeting Petroleum-Related Interests.” Written by a Saudi religious scholar, Abd Allah bin Nasir al-Rashid (aka Abdelaziz bin Rashid al-Anzi), the fatwa delivers a religious rational for the attack as well as a predictive indication of the economic results.

 The Masked Brigade was formed by Al Qaeda's longtime strongman in the Sahara region, Moktar Belmoktar, a one-eyed Algerian.  His violent attacks against the Algerian government in 1993 forced him to leave and take refuge in the desert. He became a member  Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and recently declared he was leaving the terror network's Algerian branch to form his own group based in Mali. [FoxNews]  Known as a smuggler, kidnapper, and generally bad guy, he was probably kicked out of AQIM after being accused of corruption. He formed the Masked Brigade in December. [TheMirror]

 The Masked Brigade was already holding over a dozen captives before the BP gas field strike. Kidnapping is a lucrative trade, and that may have been Belmoktar’s motivation. We wonder if he ever read the 2006 fatwa.

 The 60 page fatwa states, “The targeting of oil facilities is a legitimate means of economic jihad…one of the most powerful ways in which we can take revenge on the infidels.” It goes on to list the many effects of these attacks, among which are:

• Rising oil prices
• Rising cost of guarding petroleum facilities
• Reduction in the income of the energy companies and the producing state due to reduced production.
• A negative impact on the Western economy, especially America because it is so dependent upon oil.

 The New York Times reports that the “BP Gas Field Attack Is a Blow to Algeria's Faltering Energy Sector.” The Wall Street Journal reports that oil futures hit a four month high, climbing to over $95 a barrel.” Belmoktar may be a thug, but he has made al-Qaeda proud; in spite of himself.

 January 19, 2013 by Bruce Wallace, 121Contact

 

 

 

and away goes tax money, down the drain...are the contractors worth it?

In case you were wondering if the U.S. is still, after all those reports, charges,  and convictions, heavily invested in mercenary forces as part of our foreign policy:

[these are DoD Numbers]

                         Contractors         U.S        non-U.S      Host Country

                                                      Military      Mil.            Mil.

 

Afghanistan          109, 564          31,814       39,480           38,270

Iraq                             9,000            2,314           4,621            2,065

Other
Countries                 18,843            8,764           9,297               782

TOTALS             137,407        42,892      53,398         41,117

And then we started wondering  about just what those ‘other country’ 28,000 are doing…and who they are doing it to…and what are we getting out of it…

Taxpayer monies are going down the drain into the sewers of the manufacturers of weapons and private ‘security’ companies.  And the result:  the number of terrorist attacks, globally, is rising, not falling. In some places, like Pakistan, the number of terrorists acts has risen in proportion to the military aid we deliver.

Maybe it's time to test a new theory. Less military spending will reduce overall violence.

Retreat without victory: Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan deja vu all over again.

The U.S. used to spend about $10 billion a month in Iraq. We thought that taxpayer money would be better spent on health, education, infrastructure (to create jobs), and other people positive projects. We might as well have flushed that cash.

Well, we don't spend those dollars in Iraq anymore. But we don't funnel them to 'good' projects, either. Last year we flushed aboout about US$10 billion a month down the Afghanistan toilet.

Our investment in Iraq brought us nothing but death and destruction of American lives. We lost whatever influence we had in the region and are now ridiculed by Islamic extremists for our folly. We didn't do much good for Iraqis, either. Our investment in Afghanistan brought us nothing good of lasting value. We're about to retreat without victory. It's Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan deja vu all over again.

But wait a minute, there, fella. We didn't flush the cash. It went somewhere...oh, yes. There is a group of people getting rich while our soldiers die and we destroy whole cultures. They have little interest in ending these seemingly useless conflicts. In fact, these wars are making them richer and richer. At a million a pop (some cost a lot more) for the bombs and missiles it makes sense to keep using them. Drones aren't cheap, either. Mercenaries are still raking it in.

Yeah, retreat without victory, but there are some real winners here. In the drone wars alone you are looking at enormous profits. Northrop Grumman and General Atomics (huge political contributors, of course) sell about half of the unmanned flying machines and pull in about $2 billion a year from our follies. Of course they're not alone in this business. The list of war profiteers is long and it will only continue to grow and suck up taxpayer cash that could be better spent unless we push towards more peaceful tomorrows. Some of the Dronesters:

AAI Corporation
Advanced Technologies and Engineering (ATE)
Aeronautics Defense Systems
AeroVironment
Aerovision
Alenia Aeronautica
American Dynamics Flight Systems
Aurora Flight Sciences
BAE Systems
Baykar Machine
Bell Helicopter
Blue Bird Aero Systems
Boeing Defence, Space & Security
Cassidian
Cyberflight
Dassault Aviation
Denel Aerospace Systems
DRS Technologies
EMT
Flight Solutions
Flying Robots
General Atomics Aeronautical Systems

 

Are the terrorists winning?

After We're done defining terrorism (that's the big We, not us) we can ask, "Are the Terrorists Winning?"

If winning means achieving goals then we must look at the goals of terrorists, both long and short range. If they look way into the future they may see a Shariah governed paradise where all live in a special 'harmony.' Another group might envision a hegemony of drug-militia-lorded nations. 

The shorter view might be to destabilize and weaken governments they view as antagonistic to their goals. For the violent Islamists, for al Qaeda and their ilk, that would be all governments today, so they have a rich field of targets.

Degrading economies is one form of weakening. Forcing the Rule of Law to turn away from the protection of human rights is another. And let's not forget the 'free press' considered vital and protected by the Constitution of the United States of America. The writings of Osama bin Laden and Abu Musab al Zarqawi gloat about how they have achieved goals in all three areas.

Mexico's recent turmoil has turned their press away from the kinds of coverage that enhance Democracy into a more tabloid machine. While they are reporting more about the carnage of the drug-terrorists, they have all but eliminated the naming of the names that is so important in reportage. For example, the gun battle at Torreon's soccer stadium was reported by El Sigle de Torreon only after much debate, and then run without reference to the drug gangs involved. The editor said they were worried "they might become a target" [of the drug terrorists involved in the shooting] if they made any more of it.

The U.S. slide into curtailing human rights at home and internationally is well documented. Right to Privacy laws have been diluted to a ridiculous point. We hold prisoners indefinitely without charges

The insurgents are certainly imposing a large monetary cost on their targets. We're not talking about guys with meat cleavers attacking a hotel in Tunisia, that serves liquor, yelling, "Allahu Akbar." The windows, chairs, and bottles of booze can be replaced at modest cost. We are referring to the billions being spent in defensive reactions to organized terror.

Israel's Dome rocket estimated to cost at least $60,000 each. The initial cost for purchasing and installing the system was around US$560 million, with another $150 million projected for expansion. The November 2012 missile bout with Hamas used 389 missiles. That's an expenditure of about 23 million dollars. This isn't chump change. And even if the U.S. pays a large chunk of these expenses it still affects the bottom line.

Here in the U.S. we've gone a bit berserk. Airport screening costs taxpayers $6-8 billion a year in federal taxes and air fees. It is estimated that extra police presence at airports add another billion dollars of local taxes. The Department of Homeland Security's Fusion Center program has cost about $1.4 billion without any discernible positive result. A senate report says the centers delivered "no reporting which uncovered a terrorist threat, nor could it identify a contribution...made to disrupt an active terrorist plot." That sure smells like success to us.

Local police forces have also spent enormous amounts of money to deter attacks.

Are 'they' winning? Certainly not the long game. Terrorist organizations don't have a chance of realizing their large dreams. They are too few in number and have alienated such a large portion of their intended constituents that they could never build the world they desire. On the other hand they are doing a fine job of weakening governments, destabilizing nations, and costing all of us an awful lot of cash.

 

 December 16, 2012 by Bruce Wallace, 121Contact