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The ISIS Gap and Al Qaeda

With ISIS decimated, having lost the Caliphate Capital (Mosul), its Syrian center (Raqqa), and suffering devastating losses of troops in both countries, there is a room for a new group at the top. There is an old group ready to step up.

Al Qaeda (AQ) has always is ready to resume the title “World’s primary terrorist organization”. AQ has always held the long view of a slow process to victory: disrupt the standing order, maintain a central core from which to generate satellite affiliates across the globe, and never lose sight of the primary target, the U.S. The ISIS fantasy of world dominance proven only by assertion has failed. This means that AQ is again the primary target for international anti-terrorist forces.

The battle against AQ did not end when ISIS gained its fame and power, but it consumed a majority of U.S. forces in the fight. With ISIS rendered tactically weak the focus has shifted. Just recently Omar Khetab, al Qaeda’s No. 2 in the Indian subcontinent, and Mullah Shah Wali, commander of the Taliban’s special forces branch, were killed, along with scores of AQ fighters in Afghanistan.

It is possible that fighters and high-level leaders of ISIS will merge into AQ. ISIS affiliates may shift their allegiance also. Rumor has it that In response to attrition at the top due to American targeted assassinations, Zawahiri is grooming Osama bin Laden’s son Hamza bin Laden for a prominent place in the organization.

Support is still coming from Iran. Research indicates that cooperation between Iran and AQ has roots going back some 20 years. Many of the leadership have sheltered there along with their families. Hamza bin Laden lived in Iran at least long enough to be married there. Money has flowed through Iran to AQ.

Al Qaeda may regain its strength and grow again. It had only hundreds of fighters on 9/11 It has tens of thousands now. AQ has thrived on the instability of nation states, moving in when they are weakest. It grows when U.S. forces leave battlefields. It grows when propaganda opportunities arise, like news from Guantanamo, anti-Muslim actions like Trump’s ‘Muslim ban’, and news of U.S. forces committing perceived crimes against innocent Muslim populations. Trump’s recent declaration of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital will only add to AQ’s perceived legitimacy.

Whether or not Al Qaeda becomes a major threat to the U.S. is not yet known. It lacks a leader with the charisma of Osama bin Laden. Its affiliates were fragmented by ISIS. U.S. anti-terrorist campaigns have become more technical and more effective. But its persistence is undeniable. There is a foundational ideology that still appeals to hundreds of thousands of supporters and that remains something to be reckoned with.

BDS: Right for North Carolina-Wrong for Israel

We cheer the brave corporations that threaten North Carolina with a boycott because of its failure to protect N. Car. citizens from discrimination.

We condemn those who want to impose a boycott on Israeli products because of its failure to protect Palestinian citizens of Israel from discrimination.

We are incensed by rules about who uses which bathroom but are willing to ignore the basic rights of Palestinians. What's up with that? #ThinkingAboutThinking

What does it mean to be pro-Palestine?

“Pro-Palestinian does not mean anti-Israel…does not mean advocating terrorism…does not mean [pro-]suicide bombing.” [from Firas Al-Atraqchi]

Pro-Palestine means recognizing Palestinians are human beings who deserve to have their rights protected, with a national status of their own, and a government of their own democratically chosen representatives.

Easy? No. Possible? Just barely, given the fanatics on both sides who care little for life and much for power. Just the core of Islam peace so the heart of Judaism is Justice.

The failure of religious leaders, on both sides, to honestly address the transgressions of law and justice is a sin of omission. The people, on both sides, have failed to turn the energies of anxiety (and its children: fear, anger, and hatred) into works for more peaceful tomorrows. #121Contact

Israel and Palestine can coexist with rights for all?

 Can a way can be found for the state of Israel to exist so that the rights of the Palestinians are addressed? American Muslims have the same attitude as American non-Muslims: about 65% think it is possible.  We're not so different.

This may be surprising to those who think that all Muslims are against Israel. This is not so surprising when you consider that an overwhelming majority of Americans feel that protecting human rights is one of the top of priorities for American foreign policy.

#Islamophobia @bruce121Contact

NYTimes Intifada Misdirection

Two well-crafted articles in today's New York Times about the recent increase in Palestinian-on-Israeli violence focused on  motivation. 'Social media campaigns', 'viral videos', and 'crude cartoons' were cited as the causes. No mention was made to the #occupation or the systemic degradations of Palestinians. No reference was made to the horrid conditions in refugee camps, infrastructure destruction, or the long years of suffering under the illegal occupation. The list of grievances is long and stretches back many decades.

But when beliefs and justifications become more valuable than human live the resultant murderous violence is simply evil. Misdirecting our attention to social media's ability to trigger the violent expression of deeply felt pain and resentment will only hinder efforts to halt the carnage.

The path to peace lies along the a compassionate awakening driven by the peace movements driven by Palestinian and Israeli citizens who have seen the light. Why not more coverage of these brave people who are spreading the truth? The New York Times could begin with Building Bridges for Peace

and wait! There's more, of a broad political and social spectrum:

• Meimad provides a voice for the thousands of religious Israelis who cannot identify with the extremism of the present religious Zionist establishment,and serves as a rational partner with whom the non-religious Israeli majority can enter into significant dialogue.

• Givat Haviva Institute is one of the oldest and largest institutions in Israel working to advance Jewish - Arab rapprochement, cultural and religious pluralism, democratic values and peace in the Middle East.

• Peres Center for Peace aims to help make peace a lasting reality by paving the way for new values and mind-sets. The time has come to build a Middle East for the people, not merely for the rulers.

• Jewish Peace Fellowship - a Jewish voice in the peace community and a peace voice in the Jewish community. A nondenominational Jewish organization committed to active nonviolence as a means of resolving conflict, drawing on Jewish traditional sources within the Torah, the Talmud and contemporary peacemaking sages.

• The Friedrich Ebert Foundation (FES) office in Israel contributes to, Strengthening German-Israeli relations,Facilitating the peace process and regional co-operation, Improving labour relations, Working for gender equality and, women's empowerment, Democracy education for youth, Applied socio-economic research

• Dor Shalom is committed to impact the future shape of Israeli society, to breathing new life into the values of peace, tolerance, democracy and social justice, and to preserving the values of Jewish heritage.

• Bat Shalom is a feminist center for peace and social justice. By bringing together women peace activists, women educators, and women community leaders we are striving to raise one another's consciousness, and to create together a culture of peace and social justice in Israel.

• Foundation for Middle East Peace (FMEP), a nonprofit organization dedicated to informing Americans about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and assisting in a peaceful solution that brings security for both peoples.

• Har Homa the full story about the land and the building in Har Homa (Jerusalem)

• Peace Now ('Shalom Achshav') the largest Israeli peace organization

• Gush Shalom A small but very active group, founded by Uri Avneri.

• Israel Labor Party

• Meretz

• The Israeli Democracy Institute

 

Hamas and Israeli terrorism are symptoms.

Hamas and Israeli terrorism are symptoms.

Hamas and Israeli terrorism are symptoms. Media coverage of death and destruction capture the surface signs of deep seated psychopathy. Beneath the blood are the causes, and beneath the causes are buried the seeds of compassion required for treatment. The hidden foundational causes can be addressed...the path to peace can be opened...without violence.

The complexities of today shut down rational thought and drive us to primitive responses and explanations. We are defensively forced into the black-and-white mode of fundamentalist thinking from which we reinterpret history, dehumanize 'the other', and commit to what would ordinarily, in more peaceful settings, be obviously immoral acts.

The underlying problems that beset the Israeli and Palestinian people are old. The current situation impedes logical thought. The solutions are quite new, and require a mindset girded against knee-jerk reactions and simplistic definitions.

Violence is not the answer. Solutions lie within creative minds at the pinnacle of moral evolution. 

August 5, 2014 by Bruce Wallace, 121Contact

 

Israeli War Crimes Hidden Behind Israeli Terrorist Attacks

The reports of increased terrorist attacks by Israelis against West Bank innocent civilians are increasingly worrisome. The raids are fuel for Palestinian terrorist recruitment and undermine Israel’s ‘beleaguered nation’ claim. Two of the most recent attacks have made it into Western media.

In the Jalud Village attack  dozens of Israeli raiders stoned citizens, injuring an infant girl. In the al-Qusra attack, “The settlers cut off all the olive trees and threw stones at the houses. This is the second time this has happened this week. The settlers have been harassing us for three years. They have shot and injured our people,” a villager told Press TV.

No terrorists were arrested by the Israelis in either attack, although raiders were briefly held and then released when IDF forces arrived on the scene. The Israeli forces then used tear gas to disperse Palestinians protesting the raid.

It is good that the news of these attacks is slowly making its way through our media's obsession with more mundane items. It is terrible that this small scale terrorism is used to mask the war crimes of Israel. Focusing on village raids does not absolve the media of its sin of omission in not covering the large scale crimes against humanity that persist as part of Israel's arsenal of defense.

You may be sympathetic to both Israel’s right to exist and its incredibly precarious position in the Middle East. You may not be sympathetic at all. You cannot, however, ignore the blatant violation that Israeli settlements in the West Bank constitute.

Under the Statute of the International Criminal Court, Rule 130, “the transfer, directly or indirectly, by the Occupying Power of parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies” constitutes a war crime. It’s that simple.

January 3, 2013 by Bruce Wallace, 121Contact

Egypt and Israeli Security: Poison Flowers Bloom in the Desert

Dan Ephron, back in August, reported on a growing Israeli concern about terrorists in the Sinai. Egypt reponded with air strikes at suspected jihadi groups. This was followed by a large force sweep of some 15,000 troops and a relative calm ensued.

Now al Qaeda linked groups, it is suspected, have started blooming in the desert.

Within the last month or so we note:

• Sheikh Ayman Al-Zawahiri called for concluding the revolutions in Egypt and Syria with the institution of shari’a. The liberation of Jerusalem and Palestine, he adds, begins in Egypt and Syria.
• Ansar Bet Al-Maqdes, a mostly Bedouin Salafi-jihadist group active in the Sinai Peninsula, took responsibility for a September 20th terrorist attack on the Egypt-Israel border in which an Israeli soldier was killed. The jihadists reported it as a retaliation for the "bloody jewish massacre of peaceful Muslim in the Palestine Province of Gaza". They called the attackers "courageous Mujahideen."
• A new Islamic group, Jihadist Islamic Da’wa, is established in Egypt. It is headed by prominent Salafi-jihadist Sheikh Muhammad Al-Zawahiri, brother of Al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri.

I can't find U.S. Terrorism List references to either Ansar Bet Al-Maqdes or Jihadist Islamic Da’wa, but it sounds like they might be coming to a front page near you.

December 15, 2012 by Bruce Wallace, 121Contact

 

 

 

Syria, the Obama Doctrine, and storms ahead for Israel

Syria, the Obama Doctrine, and storms ahead for Israel
December 14, 2012 by Bruce Wallace, 121Contact

The Obama Doctrine is simple: Wait for a conflict and, if you can see an American advantage, choose a side. Get in rapidly and get out fast to avoid ground war and long occupations.

The United States has no vital interest in Bashar Hafez al Assad's Syria. True, it is a close ally of Iran and the friend of my enemy is my enemy. But that's hardly enough reason to involve the American military.

The State Department has declared Syria a state sponsor of terrorism. While it is true that Syria is funneling Iranian money and arms to the Lebanese Hezbollah, attacking the funnel probably wouldn't stop the Iran-Hezbollah linkage.

Our friends in the region are against Assad's Syria. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan, Qatar, the mostly Sunni Gulf countries all would like to see the Shiite-Alawite regime of Assad fall. This follows the ancient Sunni-Shi'ia divide. This is not so much a religious fracture as a power competition and has been such since the rival clans in Muhammad's tribe, the Quraysh, fought over succession some 1300 years ago.

So if we had no compelling reason to overthrow Assad why are we so concerned now (when it is far too late to intervene directly)? An unstable Syria will lead to an unstable region.

Storms for Israel are on the horizon as the more militant terrorist groups gain hold in Syria. The outcroppings of al Qaeda affiliates and al Qaeda-like militias are already coming to the fore and their numbers have increased significantly. In December 2011 al Nusra comprised about 1% of the opposition fighters; now they are about 10%, and they are gaining quickly even as they add suicide and car bombing to the mix.

Should have, would have, could have...it's too late now to implement the Obama Doctrine. And that's a good thing, given that there was no way on Earth that we could have prevailed without a repeat of the Iraq scenario. And we all know how that turned out. We'll just have to wait and see the outcome and then handle it as best we can.

How to help the Taliban recruit new members: Afghanistan-NATO style.

How to help the Taliban recruit new members: Afghanistan-NATO style.
December 8, 2012 by Bruce Wallace, 121Contact

We've discovered a great way to ensure higher enrollment in terrorist organizations. Just take a bunch of NATO troops, have them attack a rural health clinic, crash down its walls and then kick apart the doors, windows, beds, and medical equipment.

Then detain the staff and patients so that for the next 3 days or so you can use the hospital as 1) a jail through which you march, incarcerate, and interrogate a string of suspects, 2) a military logistics hub, and 3) a base from which to fire mortars.

Wardak Province is West of Kabul and has been a center of Taliban strength. It is also an area in which there have been incidents of Afghan soldiers attacking NATO forces. There is already a deep mistrust between all factions involved in the violence there.

Add to that the travesty of attacking a medical facility, in a country where medical services are already poor, and you have a perfect setup for losing the hearts and minds of the local populace. These innocent civilians now distrust the clinic as well.

And when you lose the people you lose the war. It's that simple.

[And stay tuned for Khaled Meshaal's speech later today from Gaza. It ought to be a full basket of propaganda from a guy who is acting as if he and Hamas won war with Israel last month. What he won with the loss of so many innocent Palestinian lives is beyond us, but then again we always find it hard to understand the minds of those who think what they stand for is more important than the lives of poeple. And those for all who think that way, no matter what nation, race, religion, cause, or whatever! Killing for Peace is just plain stupid, no matter who is doing the killing.]